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Modelling published by the (MJA) suggests that Australian hospitals do not currently have the capacity to accommodate possible demand and, as a result, the future mortality rate of COVID-19 may be much higher than expected.

According to the preprint article 鈥� given that Australia currently has around 2200 ICU beds 鈥� ICU capacity will be exceeded once the nation reaches around 22,000 cases of COVID-19. The authors suggest that this will be sometime around 5 April 2020 if public health measures fail to curb the rate of growth.

鈥淗ow many intensive care unit beds will the pandemic require?鈥� asked the authors.

鈥淭o answer this question, we propose a simple model based on an average ICU length of stay of 10 days and we then compare this model against recent real-world data from Lombardy, Italy.鈥�

In an accompanying editorial, MJA Editor-in-Chief Distinguished Laureate Professor Nick Talley wrote that the model is simple and grim.

鈥淚t proposes a hypothetical Australian hospital facing new positive COVID-19 admissions each and every day, where one in 20 community cases end up in ICU, an ICU admission is 10 days long and there is a 20% increase in SARS-CoV-2 community case load each day,鈥� he said.

鈥淏y day 15 (presumably around the time ICU beds run out), the mortality steadily increases linearly, as has happened in Italy.鈥�

Professor Talley wrote that bureaucrats must step to the sidelines.

鈥淚n my view, we will also require our health system leadership to understand at a time like this the structure in every hospital should be a military-like command-and-control one, led by senior frontline clinicians and health professionals with a designated clinician leader.

鈥淲hile the results reported [in the MJA research] may represent a worst-case scenario and may not come to pass, we must better prepare, now,鈥� he wrote.

鈥淥ver the coming months it鈥檚 going to take courage, brains and a concerted unified effort by the medical profession and health professionals to manage SARS-CoV-2 infection.

鈥淟et鈥檚 not leave anyone behind,鈥� he urged.

Image credit: 漏stock.adobe.com/au/Tyler Olson