黑料吃瓜群网

Death clocks — take with a pinch of salt


Wednesday, 01 February, 2017


Death clocks — take with a pinch of salt

The good news is that we are all living longer. The bad news is that we will all die 鈥 but when?

In , John Appleby, chief economist at the , uses online 鈥榙eath clocks鈥 to calculate the date of his demise, but finds that his life expectancy varies depending on who he asks.

Knowing when you are going to die could help make life choices, he writes, but he suggests that death clocks should come with a health warning 鈥 and the results should be taken with a pinch of salt.

from the (ONS) period life tables estimate life expectancy at birth averaged across the three years of 2013 to 2015 to be around 79 years for boys and 83 for girls, explained Appleby.

Over the past 33 years, average life expectancy at birth for UK residents has been increasing by, on average, 13.1 weeks per year for boys and 9.5 weeks for girls.

Of course, many factors can affect life expectancy, such as genetics, lifestyle, wealth, education and employment. Being married, for example, can add over a year to life expectancy compared with being single. even suggests that optimists have a 55% lower risk of early death than pessimists.

But for a more individual perspective, Appleby says you need to adjust these figures for personal characteristics and circumstances.

Based on his sex and the current mortality for his age group, ONS life tables suggest Appleby will die around May 2040, about a month after his 82nd birthday.

But plugging a few more personal details 鈥 such as his marital status, income and stress levels 鈥 into a random selection of online death clocks produced a range of predictions for his life expectancy from 67 to 89!

Some of the variation in predictions is due to differences in the basic life table data that the clocks use (some are based on non-UK data, for example), Appleby explained.

Differences will also arise given the particular risk calculators (prediction models) used, the number of variables included and the way they combine variables to produce individualised forecasts.

So perhaps the only safe conclusion is that death clocks should come with a health warning, Appleby concluded. 鈥淐alculating the date of your demise is somewhat sobering and the results should be taken with a pinch of salt,鈥 he said.

Related Articles

A Day in the Life of a rehabilitation physician and burnout coach

Dr Jo Braid is a rehabilitation physician and coach dedicated to transforming burnout recovery...

A Day in the Life of an advanced exercise physiologist

Luke Snabaitis is the first exercise physiologist in Queensland Health history to...

In conversation with AHPA CEO Bronwyn Morris-Donovan

Among the many reforms 黑料吃瓜群网 Professions Australia's Bronwyn Morris-Donovan is...



Content from other channels on our network


  • All content Copyright 漏 2025 黑料吃瓜群网-Farrow Pty Ltd